tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Nashville → Pittsburgh via Chicago: arrives on time 34%

  1. 18:24 BNA → 20:30 ORD
    UA 4679 · United, flown by SkyWest · 2h 06m · 59% on time, 6.2% cancelled
  2. 50m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:20 ORD → 23:59 PIT
    UA 3464 · United, flown by Republic · 1h 39m · 80% on time, 4.8% cancelled

Total trip 4h 35m, scheduled departure to arrival (Pittsburgh is 1 h ahead of Nashville). Times are local. Both flew on 50 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection48%The first flight arrived more than 5 minutes late on 52% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 50m layover.
Arrives on time34%First flight not cancelled (6.2% are) × connection made (48%) × second flight not cancelled (4.8% are) and within 15 minutes (80%).
Total trip4h 35mBNA 18:24 to PIT 23:59, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.