tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Nashville → Louisville via Chicago: arrives on time 34%

  1. 18:24 BNA → 20:30 ORD
    UA 4679 · United, flown by SkyWest · 2h 06m · 59% on time, 6.2% cancelled
  2. 55m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:25 ORD → 23:59 SDF
    UA 3659 · United, flown by Republic · 1h 34m · 73% on time, 11.1% cancelled

Total trip 4h 35m, scheduled departure to arrival (Louisville is 1 h ahead of Nashville). Times are local. Both flew on 50 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection56%The first flight arrived more than 10 minutes late on 44% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 55m layover.
Arrives on time34%First flight not cancelled (6.2% are) × connection made (56%) × second flight not cancelled (11.1% are) and within 15 minutes (73%).
Total trip4h 35mBNA 18:24 to SDF 23:59, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.