tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Madison → Philadelphia via Chicago: arrives on time 78%

  1. 05:00 MSN → 06:17 ORD
    UA 4707 · United, flown by SkyWest · 1h 17m · 93% on time, 3.3% cancelled
  2. 58m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 07:15 ORD → 10:30 PHL
    UA 2038 · United · 2h 15m · 89% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 4h 30m, scheduled departure to arrival (Philadelphia is 1 h ahead of Madison). Times are local. Both flew on 30 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection90%The first flight arrived more than 13 minutes late on 10% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 58m layover.
Arrives on time78%First flight not cancelled (3.3% are) × connection made (90%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (89%).
Total trip4h 30mMSN 05:00 to PHL 10:30, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.