tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Madison → Phoenix via Chicago: arrives on time 87%

  1. 05:00 MSN → 06:17 ORD
    UA 4707 · United, flown by SkyWest · 1h 17m · 93% on time, 3.3% cancelled
  2. 2h 45m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 09:02 ORD → 11:03 PHX
    UA 2225 · United · 4h 01m · 95% on time, 2.2% cancelled

Total trip 8h 03m, scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 2 h behind Madison). Times are local. Both flew on 30 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection97%The first flight arrived more than 120 minutes late on 3% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 2h 45m layover.
Arrives on time87%First flight not cancelled (3.3% are) × connection made (97%) × second flight not cancelled (2.2% are) and within 15 minutes (95%).
Total trip8h 03mMSN 05:00 to PHX 11:03, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.