tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Monterey → Denver via San Francisco: arrives on time 52%

  1. 15:30 MRY → 16:28 SFO
    UA 4729 · United, flown by SkyWest · 58m · 62% on time, 1.2% cancelled
  2. 1h 02m layover in San Francisco (SFO) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 17:30 SFO → 21:28 DEN
    UA 1214 · United · 2h 58m · 81% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 4h 58m, scheduled departure to arrival (Denver is 1 h ahead of Monterey). Times are local. Both flew on 27 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection64%The first flight arrived more than 17 minutes late on 36% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 02m layover.
Arrives on time52%First flight not cancelled (1.2% are) × connection made (64%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (81%).
Total trip4h 58mMRY 15:30 to DEN 21:28, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.