tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Dayton → Washington via Chicago: arrives on time 38%

  1. 18:15 DAY → 18:51 ORD
    UA 4749 · United, flown by SkyWest · 1h 36m · 80% on time, 4.3% cancelled
  2. 54m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 19:45 ORD → 22:54 DCA
    UA 2160 · United · 2h 09m · 56% on time, 5.0% cancelled

Total trip 4h 39m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 34 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection75%The first flight arrived more than 9 minutes late on 25% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 54m layover.
Arrives on time38%First flight not cancelled (4.3% are) × connection made (75%) × second flight not cancelled (5.0% are) and within 15 minutes (56%).
Total trip4h 39mDAY 18:15 to DCA 22:54, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.