tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Reno → Chicago via San Francisco: arrives on time 38%

  1. 14:05 RNO → 15:30 SFO
    UA 4779 · United, flown by SkyWest · 1h 25m · 58% on time, 1.7% cancelled
  2. 51m layover in San Francisco (SFO) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 16:21 SFO → 22:59 ORD
    UA 1482 · United · 4h 38m · 81% on time, 0.4% cancelled

Total trip 6h 54m, scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 2 h ahead of Reno). Times are local. Both flew on 37 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection48%The first flight arrived more than 6 minutes late on 52% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 51m layover.
Arrives on time38%First flight not cancelled (1.7% are) × connection made (48%) × second flight not cancelled (0.4% are) and within 15 minutes (81%).
Total trip6h 54mRNO 14:05 to ORD 22:59, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.