tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Traverse City → New York via Chicago: arrives on time 28%

  1. 16:37 TVC → 17:14 ORD
    AA 4903 · American, flown by SkyWest · 1h 37m · 65% on time, 7.3% cancelled
  2. 1h 06m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 18:20 ORD → 21:36 LGA
    AA 1724 · American · 2h 21m · 49% on time, 12.5% cancelled

Total trip 5h 04m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 34 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection69%The first flight arrived more than 21 minutes late on 31% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 06m layover.
Arrives on time28%First flight not cancelled (7.3% are) × connection made (69%) × second flight not cancelled (12.5% are) and within 15 minutes (49%).
Total trip5h 04mTVC 16:37 to LGA 21:36, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.