tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Traverse City → Detroit via Chicago: arrives on time 32%

  1. 16:37 TVC → 17:14 ORD
    AA 4903 · American, flown by SkyWest · 1h 37m · 65% on time, 7.3% cancelled
  2. 53m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 18:07 ORD → 20:42 DTW
    AA 3500 · American, flown by Envoy · 1h 35m · 61% on time, 8.3% cancelled

Total trip 4h 05m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 34 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection61%The first flight arrived more than 8 minutes late on 39% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 53m layover.
Arrives on time32%First flight not cancelled (7.3% are) × connection made (61%) × second flight not cancelled (8.3% are) and within 15 minutes (61%).
Total trip4h 05mTVC 16:37 to DTW 20:42, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.