tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Phoenix → Chicago via San Francisco: arrives on time 18%

  1. 07:16 PHX → 09:38 SFO
    AA 4911 · American, flown by SkyWest · 2h 22m · 39% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 47m layover in San Francisco (SFO) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 10:25 SFO → 16:59 ORD
    AA 2543 · American · 4h 29m · 71% on time, 4.2% cancelled

Total trip 7h 38m, scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 2 h ahead of Phoenix). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection27%The first flight arrived more than 2 minutes late on 73% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 47m layover.
Arrives on time18%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (27%) × second flight not cancelled (4.2% are) and within 15 minutes (71%).
Total trip7h 38mPHX 07:16 to ORD 16:59, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.