tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Buffalo → Atlanta via Chicago: arrives on time 24%

  1. 16:48 BUF → 18:03 ORD
    AA 4913 · American, flown by SkyWest · 2h 15m · 58% on time, 10.1% cancelled
  2. 56m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 18:59 ORD → 22:05 ATL
    AA 2779 · American · 2h 04m · 51% on time, 4.1% cancelled

Total trip 5h 15m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 54 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection54%The first flight arrived more than 11 minutes late on 46% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 56m layover.
Arrives on time24%First flight not cancelled (10.1% are) × connection made (54%) × second flight not cancelled (4.1% are) and within 15 minutes (51%).
Total trip5h 15mBUF 16:48 to ATL 22:05, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.