Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026
Buffalo → Tampa via Chicago: arrives on time 35%
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16:48 BUF → 18:03 ORDAA 4913 · American, flown by SkyWest · 2h 15m · 58% on time, 10.1% cancelled
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1h 14m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
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19:17 ORD → 21:52 TPAAA 353 · American · 2h 50m · 63% on time, 1.0% cancelled
Total trip 6h 19m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 54 of the last 56 days.
Makes the connection63%The first flight arrived more than 29 minutes late on 37% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 14m layover.
Arrives on time35%First flight not cancelled (10.1% are) × connection made (63%) × second flight not cancelled (1.0% are) and within 15 minutes (63%).
Total trip6h 19mBUF 16:48 to TPA 21:52, layover included
Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.
Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.