tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Buffalo → Dallas-Fort Worth via Chicago: arrives on time 40%

  1. 16:48 BUF → 18:03 ORD
    AA 4913 · American, flown by SkyWest · 2h 15m · 58% on time, 10.1% cancelled
  2. 1h 23m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 19:26 ORD → 22:08 DFW
    AA 3544 · American, flown by Envoy · 2h 42m · 73% on time, 5.7% cancelled

Total trip 6h 20m, scheduled departure to arrival (Dallas-Fort Worth is 1 h behind Buffalo). Times are local. Both flew on 54 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection65%The first flight arrived more than 38 minutes late on 35% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 23m layover.
Arrives on time40%First flight not cancelled (10.1% are) × connection made (65%) × second flight not cancelled (5.7% are) and within 15 minutes (73%).
Total trip6h 20mBUF 16:48 to DFW 22:08, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.