tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Buffalo → Detroit via Chicago: arrives on time 25%

  1. 16:48 BUF → 18:03 ORD
    AA 4913 · American, flown by SkyWest · 2h 15m · 58% on time, 10.1% cancelled
  2. 53m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 18:56 ORD → 21:34 DTW
    AA 4931 · American, flown by SkyWest · 1h 37m · 57% on time, 6.9% cancelled

Total trip 4h 45m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 54 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection52%The first flight arrived more than 8 minutes late on 48% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 53m layover.
Arrives on time25%First flight not cancelled (10.1% are) × connection made (52%) × second flight not cancelled (6.9% are) and within 15 minutes (57%).
Total trip4h 45mBUF 16:48 to DTW 21:34, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.