tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Salt Lake City → Santa Barbara via Phoenix: arrives on time 35%

  1. 18:50 SLC → 19:37 PHX
    AA 4928 · American, flown by SkyWest · 1h 47m · 53% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 50m layover in Phoenix (PHX) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:27 PHX → 21:58 SBA
    AA 1731 · American · 1h 31m · 71% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 4h 08m, scheduled departure to arrival (Santa Barbara is 1 h behind Salt Lake City). Times are local. Both flew on 38 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection49%The first flight arrived more than 5 minutes late on 51% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 50m layover.
Arrives on time35%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (49%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (71%).
Total trip4h 08mSLC 18:50 to SBA 21:58, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.