tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Salt Lake City → San Francisco via Phoenix: arrives on time 20%

  1. 18:50 SLC → 19:37 PHX
    AA 4928 · American, flown by SkyWest · 1h 47m · 53% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 46m layover in Phoenix (PHX) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:23 PHX → 22:23 SFO
    AA 686 · American · 2h 00m · 46% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 4h 33m, scheduled departure to arrival (San Francisco is 1 h behind Salt Lake City). Times are local. Both flew on 39 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection44%The first flight arrived more than 1 minutes late on 56% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 46m layover.
Arrives on time20%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (44%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (46%).
Total trip4h 33mSLC 18:50 to SFO 22:23, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.