tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Tucson → Chicago via Phoenix: arrives on time 40%

  1. 13:41 TUS → 14:43 PHX
    AA 4935 · American, flown by SkyWest · 1h 01m · 81% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 47m layover in Phoenix (PHX) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 15:30 PHX → 21:30 ORD
    AA 2786 · American · 4h 02m · 59% on time, 3.3% cancelled

Total trip 5h 51m, scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 2 h ahead of Tucson). Times are local. Both flew on 46 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection70%The first flight arrived more than 2 minutes late on 30% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 47m layover.
Arrives on time40%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (70%) × second flight not cancelled (3.3% are) and within 15 minutes (59%).
Total trip5h 51mTUS 13:41 to ORD 21:30, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.