tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Columbus → Phoenix via Chicago: arrives on time 45%

  1. 15:48 CMH → 16:30 ORD
    AA 4950 · American, flown by SkyWest · 1h 42m · 82% on time, 5.8% cancelled
  2. 1h 04m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 17:34 ORD → 19:19 PHX
    AA 3261 · American · 3h 45m · 56% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 6h 31m, scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 3 h behind Columbus). Times are local. Both flew on 38 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection85%The first flight arrived more than 19 minutes late on 15% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 04m layover.
Arrives on time45%First flight not cancelled (5.8% are) × connection made (85%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (56%).
Total trip6h 31mCMH 15:48 to PHX 19:19, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.