tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Sioux Falls → Phoenix via Chicago: arrives on time 58%

  1. 07:06 FSD → 09:05 ORD
    AA 4952 · American, flown by SkyWest · 1h 59m · 85% on time, 3.9% cancelled
  2. 1h 13m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 10:18 ORD → 12:00 PHX
    AA 3079 · American · 3h 42m · 68% on time, 1.4% cancelled

Total trip 6h 54m, scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 2 h behind Sioux Falls). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection90%The first flight arrived more than 28 minutes late on 10% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 13m layover.
Arrives on time58%First flight not cancelled (3.9% are) × connection made (90%) × second flight not cancelled (1.4% are) and within 15 minutes (68%).
Total trip6h 54mFSD 07:06 to PHX 12:00, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.