tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Columbus → New York via Chicago: arrives on time 36%

  1. 14:32 CMH → 15:14 ORD
    AA 4954 · American, flown by SkyWest · 1h 42m · 73% on time, 8.6% cancelled
  2. 1h 19m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 16:33 ORD → 20:04 JFK
    AA 1421 · American · 2h 34m · 57% on time, 11.7% cancelled

Total trip 5h 35m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 54 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection79%The first flight arrived more than 34 minutes late on 21% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 19m layover.
Arrives on time36%First flight not cancelled (8.6% are) × connection made (79%) × second flight not cancelled (11.7% are) and within 15 minutes (57%).
Total trip5h 35mCMH 14:32 to JFK 20:04, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.