tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Nashville → Newark via Chicago: arrives on time 43%

  1. 07:02 BNA → 09:10 ORD
    AA 4964 · American, flown by SkyWest · 2h 09m · 71% on time, 3.8% cancelled
  2. 1h 00m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 10:10 ORD → 13:30 EWR
    AA 2250 · American · 2h 20m · 64% on time, 2.8% cancelled

Total trip 5h 28m, scheduled departure to arrival (Newark is 1 h ahead of Nashville). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection71%The first flight arrived more than 15 minutes late on 29% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 00m layover.
Arrives on time43%First flight not cancelled (3.8% are) × connection made (71%) × second flight not cancelled (2.8% are) and within 15 minutes (64%).
Total trip5h 28mBNA 07:02 to EWR 13:30, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.