Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Nashville → San Diego via Chicago: arrives on time 46%

  1. 07:02 BNA → 09:10 ORD
    AA 4964 · American, flown by SkyWest · 2h 09m · 71% on time, 3.8% cancelled
  2. 54m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 10:04 ORD → 12:27 SAN
    AA 2482 · American · 4h 22m · 72% on time, 1.4% cancelled

Total trip 7h 24m, scheduled departure to arrival (San Diego is 2 h behind Nashville). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection68%The first flight arrived more than 9 minutes late on 32% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 54m layover.
Arrives on time46%First flight not cancelled (3.8% are) × connection made (68%) × second flight not cancelled (1.4% are) and within 15 minutes (72%).
Total trip7h 24mBNA 07:02 to SAN 12:27, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.