tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Nashville → San Antonio via Chicago: arrives on time 43%

  1. 07:02 BNA → 09:10 ORD
    AA 4964 · American, flown by SkyWest · 2h 09m · 71% on time, 3.8% cancelled
  2. 50m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 10:00 ORD → 12:50 SAT
    AA 2486 · American · 2h 50m · 72% on time, 1.6% cancelled

Total trip 5h 48m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 48 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection63%The first flight arrived more than 5 minutes late on 37% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 50m layover.
Arrives on time43%First flight not cancelled (3.8% are) × connection made (63%) × second flight not cancelled (1.6% are) and within 15 minutes (72%).
Total trip5h 48mBNA 07:02 to SAT 12:50, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.