tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Nashville → Detroit via Chicago: arrives on time 52%

  1. 07:02 BNA → 09:10 ORD
    AA 4964 · American, flown by SkyWest · 2h 09m · 71% on time, 3.8% cancelled
  2. 50m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 10:00 ORD → 12:32 DTW
    AA 3498 · American, flown by Envoy · 1h 34m · 86% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 4h 32m, scheduled departure to arrival (Detroit is 1 h ahead of Nashville). Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection63%The first flight arrived more than 5 minutes late on 37% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 50m layover.
Arrives on time52%First flight not cancelled (3.8% are) × connection made (63%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (86%).
Total trip4h 32mBNA 07:02 to DTW 12:32, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.