tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Sioux Falls → Dallas-Fort Worth via Chicago: arrives on time 37%

  1. 12:04 FSD → 14:00 ORD
    AA 4989 · American, flown by SkyWest · 1h 56m · 59% on time, 1.4% cancelled
  2. 59m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 14:59 ORD → 17:36 DFW
    AA 2257 · American · 2h 36m · 65% on time, 2.7% cancelled

Total trip 5h 31m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection59%The first flight arrived more than 14 minutes late on 41% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 59m layover.
Arrives on time37%First flight not cancelled (1.4% are) × connection made (59%) × second flight not cancelled (2.7% are) and within 15 minutes (65%).
Total trip5h 31mFSD 12:04 to DFW 17:36, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.