tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Sioux Falls → Phoenix via Chicago: arrives on time 44%

  1. 12:04 FSD → 14:00 ORD
    AA 4989 · American, flown by SkyWest · 1h 56m · 59% on time, 1.4% cancelled
  2. 1h 22m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 15:22 ORD → 17:05 PHX
    AA 2624 · American · 3h 43m · 70% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 7h 01m, scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 2 h behind Sioux Falls). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection64%The first flight arrived more than 37 minutes late on 36% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 22m layover.
Arrives on time44%First flight not cancelled (1.4% are) × connection made (64%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (70%).
Total trip7h 01mFSD 12:04 to PHX 17:05, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.