tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Sioux Falls → Minneapolis via Chicago: arrives on time 49%

  1. 12:04 FSD → 14:00 ORD
    AA 4989 · American, flown by SkyWest · 1h 56m · 59% on time, 1.4% cancelled
  2. 1h 43m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 15:43 ORD → 17:32 MSP
    AA 4425 · American, flown by Republic · 1h 49m · 74% on time, 9.9% cancelled

Total trip 5h 28m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 53 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection74%The first flight arrived more than 58 minutes late on 26% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 43m layover.
Arrives on time49%First flight not cancelled (1.4% are) × connection made (74%) × second flight not cancelled (9.9% are) and within 15 minutes (74%).
Total trip5h 28mFSD 12:04 to MSP 17:32, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.