tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Houston → Dulles via Dallas-Fort Worth: arrives on time 28%

  1. 16:14 HOU → 17:38 DFW
    AA 5002 · American, flown by SkyWest · 1h 24m · 60% on time, 2.2% cancelled
  2. 1h 06m layover in Dallas-Fort Worth (DFW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 18:44 DFW → 22:46 IAD
    AA 1132 · American · 3h 08m · 47% on time, 2.8% cancelled

Total trip 5h 38m, scheduled departure to arrival (Dulles is 1 h ahead of Houston). Times are local. Both flew on 40 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection62%The first flight arrived more than 21 minutes late on 38% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 06m layover.
Arrives on time28%First flight not cancelled (2.2% are) × connection made (62%) × second flight not cancelled (2.8% are) and within 15 minutes (47%).
Total trip5h 38mHOU 16:14 to IAD 22:46, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.