tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Houston → Philadelphia via Los Angeles: arrives on time 42%

  1. 20:15 IAH → 21:55 LAX
    AA 5005 · American, flown by SkyWest · 3h 40m · 80% on time, 1.4% cancelled
  2. 51m layover in Los Angeles (LAX) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 22:46 LAX → 07:00 PHL +1 day
    AA 3276 · American · 5h 14m · 63% on time, 2.8% cancelled

Total trip 9h 45m, scheduled departure to arrival (Philadelphia is 1 h ahead of Houston). Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection69%The first flight arrived more than 6 minutes late on 31% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 51m layover.
Arrives on time42%First flight not cancelled (1.4% are) × connection made (69%) × second flight not cancelled (2.8% are) and within 15 minutes (63%).
Total trip9h 45mIAH 20:15 to PHL 07:00, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.