tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Sacramento → Santa Ana via San Francisco: arrives on time 31%

  1. 11:46 SMF → 12:53 SFO
    UA 5248 · United, flown by SkyWest · 1h 07m · 57% on time, 2.7% cancelled
  2. 46m layover in San Francisco (SFO) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 13:39 SFO → 15:31 SNA
    UA 5440 · United, flown by SkyWest · 1h 52m · 80% on time, 0.6% cancelled

Total trip 3h 45m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection40%The first flight arrived more than 1 minutes late on 60% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 46m layover.
Arrives on time31%First flight not cancelled (2.7% are) × connection made (40%) × second flight not cancelled (0.6% are) and within 15 minutes (80%).
Total trip3h 45mSMF 11:46 to SNA 15:31, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.