tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Sacramento → Newark via San Francisco: arrives on time 25%

  1. 11:46 SMF → 12:53 SFO
    UA 5248 · United, flown by SkyWest · 1h 07m · 57% on time, 2.7% cancelled
  2. 52m layover in San Francisco (SFO) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 13:45 SFO → 22:26 EWR
    UA 366 · United · 5h 41m · 57% on time, 4.3% cancelled

Total trip 7h 40m, scheduled departure to arrival (Newark is 3 h ahead of Sacramento). Times are local. Both flew on 23 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection47%The first flight arrived more than 7 minutes late on 53% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 52m layover.
Arrives on time25%First flight not cancelled (2.7% are) × connection made (47%) × second flight not cancelled (4.3% are) and within 15 minutes (57%).
Total trip7h 40mSMF 11:46 to EWR 22:26, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.