tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Madison → Philadelphia via Chicago: arrives on time 23%

  1. 15:46 MSN → 17:01 ORD
    UA 5262 · United, flown by SkyWest · 1h 15m · 48% on time, 6.1% cancelled
  2. 58m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 17:59 ORD → 21:19 PHL
    UA 1776 · United · 2h 20m · 61% on time, 2.5% cancelled

Total trip 4h 33m, scheduled departure to arrival (Philadelphia is 1 h ahead of Madison). Times are local. Both flew on 33 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection42%The first flight arrived more than 13 minutes late on 58% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 58m layover.
Arrives on time23%First flight not cancelled (6.1% are) × connection made (42%) × second flight not cancelled (2.5% are) and within 15 minutes (61%).
Total trip4h 33mMSN 15:46 to PHL 21:19, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.