tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Madison → New York via Chicago: arrives on time 18%

  1. 15:46 MSN → 17:01 ORD
    UA 5262 · United, flown by SkyWest · 1h 15m · 48% on time, 6.1% cancelled
  2. 59m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 18:00 ORD → 21:25 LGA
    UA 2458 · United · 2h 25m · 46% on time, 5.3% cancelled

Total trip 4h 39m, scheduled departure to arrival (New York is 1 h ahead of Madison). Times are local. Both flew on 6 of the last 56 days, too few to list among the best connections.

Makes the connection45%The first flight arrived more than 14 minutes late on 55% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 59m layover.
Arrives on time18%First flight not cancelled (6.1% are) × connection made (45%) × second flight not cancelled (5.3% are) and within 15 minutes (46%).
Total trip4h 39mMSN 15:46 to LGA 21:25, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.