tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Madison → Newark via Chicago: arrives on time 56%

  1. 15:46 MSN → 17:01 ORD
    UA 5262 · United, flown by SkyWest · 1h 15m · 48% on time, 6.1% cancelled
  2. 3h 06m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:07 ORD → 23:39 EWR
    UA 759 · United · 2h 32m · 65% on time, 5.3% cancelled

Total trip 6h 53m, scheduled departure to arrival (Newark is 1 h ahead of Madison). Times are local. Both flew on 33 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection97%The first flight arrived more than 141 minutes late on 3% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 3h 06m layover.
Arrives on time56%First flight not cancelled (6.1% are) × connection made (97%) × second flight not cancelled (5.3% are) and within 15 minutes (65%).
Total trip6h 53mMSN 15:46 to EWR 23:39, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.