tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Detroit → Las Vegas via Chicago: arrives on time 39%

  1. 18:20 DTW → 18:57 ORD
    UA 5264 · United, flown by SkyWest · 1h 37m · 70% on time, 8.3% cancelled
  2. 53m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 19:50 ORD → 21:59 LAS
    UA 2242 · United · 4h 09m · 78% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 6h 39m, scheduled departure to arrival (Las Vegas is 3 h behind Detroit). Times are local. Both flew on 36 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection55%The first flight arrived more than 8 minutes late on 45% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 53m layover.
Arrives on time39%First flight not cancelled (8.3% are) × connection made (55%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (78%).
Total trip6h 39mDTW 18:20 to LAS 21:59, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.