tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Detroit → Santa Ana via Chicago: arrives on time 35%

  1. 18:20 DTW → 18:57 ORD
    UA 5264 · United, flown by SkyWest · 1h 37m · 70% on time, 8.3% cancelled
  2. 48m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 19:45 ORD → 22:19 SNA
    UA 308 · United · 4h 34m · 84% on time, 0.5% cancelled

Total trip 6h 59m, scheduled departure to arrival (Santa Ana is 3 h behind Detroit). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection46%The first flight arrived more than 3 minutes late on 54% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 48m layover.
Arrives on time35%First flight not cancelled (8.3% are) × connection made (46%) × second flight not cancelled (0.5% are) and within 15 minutes (84%).
Total trip6h 59mDTW 18:20 to SNA 22:19, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.