tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Asheville → Minneapolis via Chicago: arrives on time 29%

  1. 17:38 AVL → 19:00 ORD
    UA 5289 · United, flown by SkyWest · 2h 22m · 61% on time, 9.7% cancelled
  2. 57m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 19:57 ORD → 21:41 MSP
    UA 2005 · United · 1h 44m · 58% on time, 4.0% cancelled

Total trip 5h 03m, scheduled departure to arrival (Minneapolis is 1 h behind Asheville). Times are local. Both flew on 31 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection59%The first flight arrived more than 12 minutes late on 41% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 57m layover.
Arrives on time29%First flight not cancelled (9.7% are) × connection made (59%) × second flight not cancelled (4.0% are) and within 15 minutes (58%).
Total trip5h 03mAVL 17:38 to MSP 21:41, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.