tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Tulsa → New York via Houston: arrives on time 28%

  1. 15:43 TUL → 17:24 IAH
    UA 5301 · United, flown by SkyWest · 1h 41m · 64% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 07m layover in Houston (IAH) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 18:31 IAH → 23:14 LGA
    UA 2783 · United · 3h 43m · 42% on time, 3.1% cancelled

Total trip 6h 31m, scheduled departure to arrival (New York is 1 h ahead of Tulsa). Times are local. Both flew on 32 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection70%The first flight arrived more than 22 minutes late on 30% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 07m layover.
Arrives on time28%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (70%) × second flight not cancelled (3.1% are) and within 15 minutes (42%).
Total trip6h 31mTUL 15:43 to LGA 23:14, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.