tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Memphis → Newark via Chicago: arrives on time 13%

  1. 18:35 MEM → 20:40 ORD
    UA 5336 · United, flown by SkyWest · 2h 05m · 34% on time, 9.7% cancelled
  2. 50m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:30 ORD → 00:53 EWR +1 day
    UA 1209 · United · 2h 23m · 68% on time, 3.8% cancelled

Total trip 5h 18m, scheduled departure to arrival (Newark is 1 h ahead of Memphis). Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection22%The first flight arrived more than 5 minutes late on 78% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 50m layover.
Arrives on time13%First flight not cancelled (9.7% are) × connection made (22%) × second flight not cancelled (3.8% are) and within 15 minutes (68%).
Total trip5h 18mMEM 18:35 to EWR 00:53, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.