tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Fresno → Seattle via San Francisco: arrives on time 44%

  1. 18:40 FAT → 19:44 SFO
    UA 5349 · United, flown by SkyWest · 1h 04m · 58% on time, 3.1% cancelled
  2. 1h 10m layover in San Francisco (SFO) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:54 SFO → 23:19 SEA
    UA 1007 · United · 2h 25m · 66% on time, 0.5% cancelled

Total trip 4h 39m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 53 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection70%The first flight arrived more than 25 minutes late on 30% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 10m layover.
Arrives on time44%First flight not cancelled (3.1% are) × connection made (70%) × second flight not cancelled (0.5% are) and within 15 minutes (66%).
Total trip4h 39mFAT 18:40 to SEA 23:19, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.