tailodds FORECAST
Connection · two tickets · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Santa Ana → New York via San Francisco: arrives on time 88%

  1. 16:12 SNA → 17:50 SFO
    UA 5351 · United, flown by SkyWest · 1h 38m · 67% on time, 2.1% cancelled
  2. 3h 40m layover in San Francisco (SFO) · 90 min minimum on separate tickets
  3. 21:30 SFO → 06:20 JFK +1 day
    AS 211 · Alaska · 5h 50m · 92% on time, 1.4% cancelled

Total trip 11h 08m, scheduled departure to arrival (New York is 3 h ahead of Santa Ana). Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection99%The first flight arrived more than 130 minutes late on 1% of the days it flew: too late for the 90-minute minimum connection on a 3h 40m layover.
Arrives on time88%First flight not cancelled (2.1% are) × connection made (99%) × second flight not cancelled (1.4% are) and within 15 minutes (92%).
Total trip11h 08mSNA 16:12 to JFK 06:20, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.