tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Minneapolis → Rapid City via Chicago: arrives on time 31%

  1. 18:41 MSP → 20:30 ORD
    UA 5390 · United, flown by SkyWest · 1h 49m · 56% on time, 8.1% cancelled
  2. 1h 00m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:30 ORD → 23:16 RAP
    UA 5331 · United, flown by SkyWest · 2h 46m · 66% on time, 6.5% cancelled

Total trip 5h 35m, scheduled departure to arrival (Rapid City is 1 h behind Minneapolis). Times are local. Both flew on 31 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection56%The first flight arrived more than 15 minutes late on 44% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 00m layover.
Arrives on time31%First flight not cancelled (8.1% are) × connection made (56%) × second flight not cancelled (6.5% are) and within 15 minutes (66%).
Total trip5h 35mMSP 18:41 to RAP 23:16, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.