tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Minneapolis → Newark via Chicago: arrives on time 33%

  1. 18:41 MSP → 20:30 ORD
    UA 5390 · United, flown by SkyWest · 1h 49m · 56% on time, 8.1% cancelled
  2. 1h 00m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:30 ORD → 00:53 EWR +1 day
    UA 1209 · United · 2h 23m · 68% on time, 3.8% cancelled

Total trip 5h 12m, scheduled departure to arrival (Newark is 1 h ahead of Minneapolis). Times are local. Both flew on 36 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection56%The first flight arrived more than 15 minutes late on 44% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 00m layover.
Arrives on time33%First flight not cancelled (8.1% are) × connection made (56%) × second flight not cancelled (3.8% are) and within 15 minutes (68%).
Total trip5h 12mMSP 18:41 to EWR 00:53, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.