tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Minneapolis → Sioux Falls via Chicago: arrives on time 29%

  1. 18:41 MSP → 20:30 ORD
    UA 5390 · United, flown by SkyWest · 1h 49m · 56% on time, 8.1% cancelled
  2. 1h 00m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:30 ORD → 23:31 FSD
    UA 1842 · United · 2h 01m · 60% on time, 4.3% cancelled

Total trip 4h 50m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 37 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection56%The first flight arrived more than 15 minutes late on 44% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 00m layover.
Arrives on time29%First flight not cancelled (8.1% are) × connection made (56%) × second flight not cancelled (4.3% are) and within 15 minutes (60%).
Total trip4h 50mMSP 18:41 to FSD 23:31, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.