tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Minneapolis → Traverse City via Chicago: arrives on time 22%

  1. 18:41 MSP → 20:30 ORD
    UA 5390 · United, flown by SkyWest · 1h 49m · 56% on time, 8.1% cancelled
  2. 55m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:25 ORD → 23:54 TVC
    UA 3572 · United, flown by Republic · 1h 29m · 61% on time, 10.0% cancelled

Total trip 4h 13m, scheduled departure to arrival (Traverse City is 1 h ahead of Minneapolis). Times are local. Both flew on 20 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection44%The first flight arrived more than 10 minutes late on 56% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 55m layover.
Arrives on time22%First flight not cancelled (8.1% are) × connection made (44%) × second flight not cancelled (10.0% are) and within 15 minutes (61%).
Total trip4h 13mMSP 18:41 to TVC 23:54, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.