tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Hailey → Chicago via San Francisco: arrives on time 37%

  1. 07:40 SUN → 08:59 SFO
    UA 5423 · United, flown by SkyWest · 2h 19m · 48% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 06m layover in San Francisco (SFO) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 10:05 SFO → 16:38 ORD
    UA 1954 · United · 4h 33m · 72% on time, 0.5% cancelled

Total trip 7h 58m, scheduled departure to arrival (Chicago is 1 h ahead of Hailey). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection52%The first flight arrived more than 21 minutes late on 48% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 06m layover.
Arrives on time37%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (52%) × second flight not cancelled (0.5% are) and within 15 minutes (72%).
Total trip7h 58mSUN 07:40 to ORD 16:38, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.