tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Indianapolis → San Francisco via Chicago: arrives on time 29%

  1. 18:33 IND → 19:00 ORD
    UA 5435 · United, flown by SkyWest · 1h 27m · 64% on time, 9.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 04m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:04 ORD → 22:57 SFO
    UA 1495 · United · 4h 53m · 45% on time, 1.4% cancelled

Total trip 7h 24m, scheduled departure to arrival (San Francisco is 3 h behind Indianapolis). Times are local. Both flew on 54 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection72%The first flight arrived more than 19 minutes late on 28% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 04m layover.
Arrives on time29%First flight not cancelled (9.0% are) × connection made (72%) × second flight not cancelled (1.4% are) and within 15 minutes (45%).
Total trip7h 24mIND 18:33 to SFO 22:57, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.