tailodds FORECAST
Connection · two tickets · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

San Francisco → Everett via Santa Ana: arrives on time 75%

  1. 13:39 SFO → 15:31 SNA
    UA 5440 · United, flown by SkyWest · 1h 52m · 80% on time, 0.6% cancelled
  2. 3h 25m layover in Santa Ana (SNA) · 90 min minimum on separate tickets
  3. 18:56 SNA → 21:40 PAE
    AS 2116 · Alaska, flown by Horizon · 2h 44m · 80% on time, 2.5% cancelled

Total trip 8h 01m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 53 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection97%The first flight arrived more than 115 minutes late on 3% of the days it flew: too late for the 90-minute minimum connection on a 3h 25m layover.
Arrives on time75%First flight not cancelled (0.6% are) × connection made (97%) × second flight not cancelled (2.5% are) and within 15 minutes (80%).
Total trip8h 01mSFO 13:39 to PAE 21:40, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.