tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Raleigh/Durham → Indianapolis via Chicago: arrives on time 37%

  1. 13:15 RDU → 14:45 ORD
    UA 5465 · United, flown by SkyWest · 2h 30m · 83% on time, 2.7% cancelled
  2. 50m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 15:35 ORD → 17:52 IND
    UA 5985 · United, flown by SkyWest · 1h 17m · 67% on time, 6.0% cancelled

Total trip 4h 37m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 37 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection61%The first flight arrived more than 5 minutes late on 39% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 50m layover.
Arrives on time37%First flight not cancelled (2.7% are) × connection made (61%) × second flight not cancelled (6.0% are) and within 15 minutes (67%).
Total trip4h 37mRDU 13:15 to IND 17:52, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.