tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Minneapolis → Fayetteville/Springdale/ via Chicago: arrives on time 44%

  1. 13:08 MSP → 14:53 ORD
    UA 5570 · United, flown by SkyWest · 1h 45m · 67% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 02m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 15:55 ORD → 17:57 XNA
    UA 5689 · United, flown by SkyWest · 2h 02m · 69% on time, 6.5% cancelled

Total trip 4h 49m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 27 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection68%The first flight arrived more than 17 minutes late on 32% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 02m layover.
Arrives on time44%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (68%) × second flight not cancelled (6.5% are) and within 15 minutes (69%).
Total trip4h 49mMSP 13:08 to XNA 17:57, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.